This week’s “Sean Sheehan Vs” sees Sean taking on professional MMA fighter and YourMMA.tv editor Jay Furness as they predict Cage Warriors 70 and UFC Fight Night : Bader vs. St-Preux.
Every UFC event Sean and his opponent will break down the reasoning behind their main fight picks and will give quick picks for the undercard.
We start with Sean’s pick for the UFC’s main event, Bader vs. OSP and alternate between the events after.
Ryan Bader vs. Ovince St-Preux
Since emerging victorious from his season of The Ultimate Fighter, Ryan Bader has been a borderline Top-10 light-heavyweight who has struggled to get a marquee win to push his career forward. A strong wrestling base has been a great starting point while adding a tight, powerful boxing game has made him a genuine prospect. His opponent, though, has similar qualities.
Ovince St-Preux is a former high school wrestling stand-out and college American football player who has brought his phenomenal athleticism to MMA. Since moving from Strikeforce to the UFC, OSP has had the best run of his career culminating in a win over Ryan Jimmo in June. Bader, though, will be the biggest test of his career. I see this fight being played out on the feet as both men’s wrestling will be cancelled out. Although Bader is a powerful and technically sound boxer I think St-Preux is more powerful, more varied and quicker. Over five rounds I could see Bader being able to out-point him but I think OSP will get the finish before the championship rounds.
Sheehan’s Pick – OSP via KO/TKO
OSP has really started to blossom with his current win streak – he’s finishing tough dudes and looks a real threat. However, Ryan Bader has fought the tougher competition thus far and will make it hard work. Neither guy has been five rounds before and I think it could be an issue for both of them, especially as Bader’s route to victory is most likely over the distance.
With Bader’s last win over Cavalcante, I’d say stylistically OSP isn’t too much of a change of plan. He throws a lot of strikes but that can lend itself to him burning out and getting taken down. I’m going to predict that St Preux turns up in shape and hungry, gets frustrated by Bader’s wrestling early, but manages to stay in the fight for a while and threaten. However, Bader will resume control and stay on top until he gets a finish when things turn ugly and sloppy in the fourth.
Jay’s Pick – Bader via TKO/KO
Joseph Duffy vs. Damen Lapilus
In his return to MMA following a spell in the boxing ring, Joseph Duffy headlines Cage Warriors 70 against Parisian Damien Lapilus. Before he transitioned to the sweet science Duffy had a well rounded game with slick submissions while tight technical power boxing was his stand-out feature and that, logically, should be even better now. Lapilus, on the other hand, prefers to fight on the ground, although he also has an unorthodox striking arsenal, with five of his nine wins coming via submission. If Duffy can keep this fight on the feet and get through any cage rust I think he can get the finish there – although I wouldn’t rule out a submission.
Sheehan’s Pick – Duffy via KO/TKO
This is a really hard one to gauge given Duffy’s time away from the cage. Of course he’s been boxing and doing well, but three years is a long time in the ever-evolving world of MMA. Damien Lapilus has been extremely active in that time and that always helps.
I do think it’ll be a Duffy victory, but the manner is what I’m undecided on. He’ll have better hands than ever, but he was always a fierce submission artist too when he was active. Lapilus won’t be a walkover and he looks explosive, but I expect Duffy to be a step ahead. I’ll say a Duffy second round submission as a way of reintroducing himself to the MMA scene. It’ll feel like home again when he wraps his arms around someone’s neck and puts on that finishing squeeze.
Jay’s Pick – Duffy via Submission
Gray Maynard vs. Ross Pearson
Role the clock back a few years and this fight would be a mismatch in favour of Gray Maynard. Now, though, Pearson enters the fight as the favourite in what could be the last outing for Maynard if he loses. After being knocked out by Frankie Edgar in the finale of their trilogy Maynard got back to winning ways in a tight decision win over Clay Guida. But since then the American has been brutally knocked out twice and needs a win here on Saturday. Pearson on the other hand had impressive back to back wins before an unfortunate no-contest against Melvin Guillard and a daylight robbery against Diego Sanchez. To win, Maynard will need to get Pearson to the ground and keep him there. The Englishman is power striker with improving takedown defence and will be looking to test Maynard’s chin. I’m not sure it can pass that test.
Sheehan’s Pick – Pearson via KO/TKO
Maynard’s chin has certainly seen better days, and a striker like Pearson will always fancy their chances at putting a glove on it. The looping, less technical striking of ‘The Bully’ lends itself perfectly to Pearson’s style, with tight punches and low kicks, and great movement. Of course Maynard is a better wrestler and could grind out a decision, but he doesn’t move as fast as Pearson does, and the Sunderland man is savvy with his positioning in the cage.
I think you’ll see another Sanchez-esque technical striking masterclass from ‘The Real Deal’ en route to a decision. I wouldn’t write the finish off, but Ross after three rounds is my pick.
Jay’s Pick – Pearson via decision
Paul Redmond vs. Alexis Savvidis
After cancelling a possible move to featherweight Paul Redmond returns at lightweight against Greek prospect Alexis Savvidis after his original opponent, Michael Doyle, was forced to pull out of the fight through injury. Savvidis has a tough task for his promotional debut but will himself also be a hard fight. Savvidis is an ultra aggressive fighter in every area and is dangerous for as long as he’s in the fight. Redmond, though, should have enough for him. The Dubliner has a tighter striking attack and is a submission whizz on the ground. The latter is probably where he’ll have the most success.
Sheehan’s Pick – Redmond via Submission
Savvidis has a good record of 8-1 coming into this that certainly, on paper, puts him right in with a chance against Paul Redmond. However, the calibre of opposition is nothing like that which Redmond has faced. The level in Greece is not as high as the fighting city of Dublin, and Redmond cuts his teeth with some great teammates. I expect him to win via submission in the first round without too many problems.
Jay’s Pick – Redmond via submission
Tim Boetsch vs. Brad Tavares
This fight will more than likely be a close decision after fifteen minutes of back-and-forth. Tavares is a young, improving middleweight with a steady kickboxing game. His biggest flaw, though, is his wrestling and that’s where this fight will be won or lost. Boetsch is a strong wrestler but may not be quick or athletic enough to get inside and take the Hawaiian down. On the feet Boetsch is the one with the knockout power but Tavares has the ability to land more. All things considered, I think Tavares can stay off his back and avoid the power punches long enough to take the decision.
Sheehan’s Pick – Tavares via decision
I see this one going the distance. Boetsch has some big wins but he hasn’t looked great lately. Tavares just had a good streak broken but, again, even those five wins didn’t set the world on fire. Boetsch seems to be lacking a bit of that drive and Brad Tavares could send him packing here. A sprawl and brawl game whilst utilising his reach and frustrating the shorter man gets him the nod after fifteen minutes. Just.
Jay’s Pick – Tavares via decision
Philip Mulpeter vs. Jake Bostwick
If you read my “Five for Fighting” piece at the start of the month you will know I’m really excited about this fight. Simply put, it should be bonkers. Neither man is backwards in coming forward and will be looking to get a win to move towards title contention. England’s Bostwick is a well rounded fighter who is built like a fire hydrant. Look for him to mix up his attacks with boxing and wrestling. Mulpeter is more about movement and speed than brute power. The Laoisman will look to get in and out while using his strong leg and head kicks to do damage. This really is a pick ’em fight but I see Mulpeter edging out the decision.
Sheehan’s Pick – Mulpeter via decision
Both guys are tough, exciting and game and that makes this one of the fights I’m most looking forward to. I think Bostwick will be bigger and he carries more of a one shot kind of knockout power, but Mulpeter is well rounded and never gives in, and has some great strikes from the top that can put guys away. I think this will be an extremely close battle but I’m going to go with Bostwick edging it on points.
Jay’s Pick – Bostwick via decision
OTHER UFC PICKS:
Seth Baczynski vs. Alan Jouban
Sheehan’s pick – Seth via decision
Jay’s pick – Baczynski via decision
Shawn Jordan vs. Jack May
Sheehan’s pick – May via KO/TKO
Jay’s pick – May via TKO, Rd 1
Thiago Tavares vs. Robbie Peralta
Sheehan’s pick – Tavares via decision
Jay’s pick – Tavares via decision
Jussier Formiga vs. Zach Makovsky
Sheehan’s pick – Zach via decision
Jay’s pick – Makovsky via decision
Sara McMann vs. Lauren Murphy
Sheehan’s pick – McMann via decision
Jay’s pick – McMann via TKO, Rd 2
Tom Watson vs. Sam Alvey
Sheehan’s pick – Alvey via decision
Jay’s pick – Alvey via decision
Nolan Ticman vs. Frankie Saenz
Sheehan’s pick – Saenz via decision
Jay’s pick – Saenz via submission, Rd 1
OTHER CWFC PICKS:
Andrew Fisher vs Artem Lobov
Sheehan’s pick – Fisher via submission
Jay’s pick – Fisher via close decision
Lloyd Clarkson vs Karl Moore
Sheehan’s pick – Moore via submission
Jay’s pick – Moore via TKO, Rd 3
Dean Garnett vs Martin Sheridan
Sheehan’s pick – Garnett via submission
Jay’s pick – Garnett via submission, Rd 2
Paul Marin vs Andy Young
Sheehan’s pick – Marin via decision
Jay’s pick – Marin via decision
Catherine Costigan vs Noelia Molina
Sheehan’s pick – Costigan via submission
Jay’s pick – Costigan via submission, Rd 1
Tommy McCafferty vs Dean Reilly
Sheehan’s pick – McCafferty via decision
Jay’s pick – Reilly via TKO – Rd 2
Louis Chapman vs Ryan Roddy
Sheehan’s pick – Roddy via decision
Jay’s pick – Roddy via decision
Konrad Iwanowski vs Peter Queally
Sheehan’s pick – Iwanowski via decision
Jay’s pick – Queally via decision
Rules: Every correct pick made is equal to 1 point. If the competition ends in a draw then method of victory will be used to decide a winner
And for the Sean Sheehan bet of the week…
My bet this week is a cross promotional treble of underdogs. Mulpeter, Alvey and OSP all to win is just about 10/1.
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